أثر أسعار النفط وتقلبات سعر الصرف على النمو الاقتصادي دراسة حالة الجزائر 1980-2016

Abstract

This study investigated the impact of oil prices and exchange rate fluctuations on economic growth in Algeria during the period (1980-2016), depending on the descriptive analytical approach and experimental approach, Where the first three chapters exhibited some basic concepts and theories concerning oil prices, exchange rates and economic growth, in addition to highlighting the importance of the oil sector in the Algerian economy and the evolution stages of the Algerian Dinar's exchange rate and the reality of the Algerian economy in light of development plans. the fourth chapter included the empirical analysis, one which based on a vector error correction model after the Johansen test indicated the existence of a co-integration between the variables of the study. The results of the estimation showed a significant positive long-term effect for each of, real gross fixed capital formation, employment, real exchange rate, real money supply and the real price of oil on real GDP, whereas real government final consumption expenditure had a significant negative effect. The forecast error variance decomposition indicated that the real exchange rate, real money supply, real price of oil are the variables which explain most of the long-term economic growth in Algeria. As for the scenarios' results, they showed that the real exchange rate can be used as a tool to absorb the effects of negative shocks in the real price of oil on the national economy. Keywords: Oil Prices; Exchange rate; Economic growth; Vec model; Scenarios.