دراسة قياسية لاثر تقلبات اسعار البترول على ميزان المدفوعات في الجزائر خلال الفترة 1986-2019 بإستخدام نموذج ARDL

Abstract

The subject of oil price changes at the present time is one of the phenomena facing most countries of the world with their different levels of progress. Therefore, it was the subject of our study and our interest, as the main objective of this study was to know the implications of changing oil prices on the Algerian balance of payments for th e extended period (1986-2019). And that is after we dealt with the theoretical framework of petroleum and the balance of payments and the analytical aspect of the development of oil prices and the balance of payments and the standard aspect of the impact of fluctuations in oil prices on the balance of payments, using a set of indicators that express the balance of payments represented in (trade balance, exchange rate, Capital account) and we have relied on the Eviews program to do the standard analysis where the study model was estimated using the ARDL model, where it was reached through the border test that there is a co-integration relationship between the study variables (balance of payments, oil price, trade balance, exchange rate,gdp) and it was found that there is a relationship in the long term between the price of oil and the balance of payments