تحليل العلاقة بين تقنيات اسعار الصرف والصادرات في دول شمال افريقيا دراسة قياسية خلال الفترة 1990

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze a relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and exports in North African countries (Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Mauritania), during the period (1990-2019), in addition to clarifying the relationship between exchange rate changes and exports, as well as highlighting the effects of exchange rate changes and exports. The exchange, especially the policy of devaluing the local currency, in order to understand the subject of our study, we dealt with two theoretical and practical aspects. The theoretical aspect was touched upon the conceptual framework of the exchange rate, and the most important theories that explain it, as well as some concepts related to exports. As for the practical one, it is a standard study using the ARDL Panel, So that we focused in our study on the years from 1990 to 2019, relying on quantitative and standard tools, and the study concluded that the best model through the Haussmann test is the compact group average model (pmg), and among the results reached is that there is a significant impact of the exchange rate on Exports of goods and services, and also showed that there is a direct relationship between the two variables in the short and long term, as positive shocks in the exchange rate lead to a rise in exports of goods and services. The study concluded that the most important variables exchange rate and exports in North African countries were: exports of goods and services, official exchange rate, oil prices, gross domestic product, inflation, and the study model was estimated using the combined average group (PMG) method, and the results showed a positive and significant effect. The GDP on exports, the results also showed a negative and significant impact on both the official exchange rate and inflation. Keywords: exports of goods and services, official exchange rate, oil prices, GDP, North African countries, Panel- ARDL