العوامل المحددة لحجم الانفاق العام في الجزائر دراسة قياسية للفترة 1980-2014

Abstract

This study aims to identify the most important determinants of the size of public expenditure at the level of the Algerian economy for the time period stretching from 1980 to 2014.The study was built on an econometric model based on a standard form of 12 variables representing the most important macroeconomic indicators by applying ordinary least squares. The results yielded six major variants that explained together about 99% of the changes in public spending (petroleum fiscal, ordinary tascation, budget balance, exchange rate, exports and the depth of the financial system). The study also found that the petroleum levy is the primary determinant of public spending suggesting heavy reliance on oil rents in the financing of the general budget, and the lack of contribution of taxes and exports in the coverage of public charges, making its revenues unstable and linked to oil prices which affects its general budget and prevents the establishment of the state role effectively and the achievement of a good rate of economic growth. In addition, the exchange rate changes and the deterioration of the currency exert a negative impact on the economy by inflating the amount of money spent without a real increase in the goods and services provided to the community and its well-being. Todevelop its economy, the State must diversify its sources of revenue and not rely on oil revenues, which are controlled by external factors. It has to stimulate the investment of financial surpluses in productive projects to provide new financial resources that are more stable. The State needs to maintain the stability of the local currency, and work on the development of the financial system that would accommodate savings to finance economic development programs and to cover the government's budget deficit under avoiding foreign borrowing.