الأساليب الحديثة للتنبؤ بالتعثر المالي باستخدام النماذج الإحصائية -دراسة حالة مجموعة من المؤسسات الإقتصادية

Abstract

This study aims to highlight the role of modern models in predicting and detecting financial distress in advance, which may impact economic entities throughout their lifespan. Several models were used, including traditional ones such as the Altman model and the Sherrod model. As for modern models, they included the Shirata model and the D.Score model. These models were applied to active economic entities in the Algerian stock exchange during the period from 2014 to 2021, relying on the financial statements published by these entities. The study yielded several important results, with the Altman model accurately representing the financial status of each entity, unlike the Sherrod model, which showed difficulty in predicting financial failure in most entities due to Z-values falling in the critical zone, making it challenging to assess their financial situation. Additionally, the D.Score and Shirata models were found to be effective in predicting future financial failure for several entities, with logical analyses based on each model's variables. The study revealed that the recent years, particularly, were more susceptible to financial failure due to the crisis experienced by Algeria.